The idea was always that fear of losing control would make Greece blink at the last minute. Well, the last minute is here, Grexit is palpable, but Greece is not blinking.
To the contrary, the surprise here has been how orderly Greece's supposed plummet towards disaster has been. While there has been a deposit flight, there has been no bank run. No mobs shaking down ATMs or stampeding banks. Hardly a pitchfork in sight.
And, while the deposit flight is generally highlighted as undermining Greece's position, I see the opposite.
By taking their money out of the banks, the Greek population is essentially taking electronic money that upon Grexit will be denominated and haircut into oblivion, and turning it into hard cash, either under the mattress or safe in foreign bank accounts - in any case safe. Every million euros that Greeks take out of the banks is a million euros that will be preserved through the inevitable Grexit "corralito" - money that post-Grexit (and forced-Drachma conversion and likely evaporation of electronic money) will re-enter and rebuild the Greek economy. The more that's taken out, the more will be available on the other side. In fact, soon after denomination, the Greek government can declare the possession of more than a small amount of foreign cash (i.e. euros) illegal and subject to seizure without compensation and Greeks will have no choice but to trundle down to their local newly nationalised bank and pay in all their hoarded euros. The deposit flight, will turn into a deposit flood.
On the other hand, if there is no Grexit, or until Grexit happens, the deposit flight in itself doesn't matter - the ECB is funding everything anyway and keeping everything afloat. And if a deal is done, the money can simply go back.
You could argue then that is in Greece's interests to keep things going until the banks literally have zero deposits, knowing in full likelihood that the ECB will finance the banks down to that last euro rather than pull the plug and go down in history as the bankers that took out a nation.
What we are witnessing is not a deposit flight but a multi-billion euro bank heist. The ECB is essentially yet systematically being shaken down, and there is nothing it can do but dumbly smile