Can Greece Leave?, por John Cochrane:
Is Grexit even possible?Ver também Sair do euro aumentaria a competitividade grega?
It strikes me that the best Greece can do with a Drachma is to create a two-currency system, sort of like Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentinal (...).
If the government brings back the Drachma as a way to pay pensions, government salaries, and bank accounts, Euros will still circulate in Greece.
18% of Greek GDP is tourism. That number may be understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants, stores, transport, and other places that mix tourists and locals. Tourists will spend Euros, not Drachmas. So hotels, gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, clothes stores, airlines, car rentals, etc. will likely still gladly take euros and euro credit cards, and from locals as well as tourists. (...)
So, the Drachmaized Greece that I see is not the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that some on the left seem to envision. Instead I see a two-currency economy. Pensioners and government workers and anyone unlucky enough to still have a Greek bank account get Drachmas. Hotel owners, restaurant owners, and exporters get euros, above or under the table.
Quer a ideia de John Cochrane que quem iria usar dracmas seriam os funcionários públicos e os pensionistas, quer a minha que iriam ser sobretudo os assalariados cuja remuneração seria fixada em dracmas, implicarão que quem terá mais a perder com a saída do euro seria exatamente a base social do Syriza (talvez os eleitores do ANEL-Gregos Independentes tenham mais a ganhar? Se for o caso, talvez possa explicar o facto de nas últimas semanas o ANEL ter parecido ser mais duros com os credores do que a direção do Syriza).