O mito da superpopulação muçulmana

The Muslim Overpopulation Myth That Just Won’t Die, por Krithika Varagur (The Atlantic):

The trope of Muslim overpopulation is reliably powerful anywhere in the world where there is a sizable Muslim immigrant or minority population, from India to Western Europe.

Hindu nationalists often fan anxiety about Muslim population growth; the proportion of Muslims in India grew about 0.8 percent between 2001 and 2011, to 14.2 percent. “If this remains the situation, one should forget about their existence in one’s own country by 2025,” said the leader of a major Hindu nationalist organization last year. But the fertility gap between Muslims and Hindus in India is narrowing fast, and the greatest birthrate disparities are between states, not religions: Hindu women in the very poor state of Bihar have about two more children each than Muslim women in more developed Andhra Pradesh.

Similar concerns echo across countries like France, Germany, the U.K., and the Netherlands. Although Muslims make up less than 10 percent of the total population in each of these countries, perceived overpopulation has been at the center of anti-immigration discourse. About 7.5 percent of France is Muslim, yet on average French people believe Muslims constitute about one in three people in the country. Although Muslim women in Western Europe do currently have more children than their non-Muslim counterparts, research shows that European Muslims’ fertility rate is also declining much faster, so their fertility rates will likely converge over time. (However, in this context, fertility isn’t the only issue; a wave of Muslim immigration over the past few years has reinforced some Europeans’ concerns about Muslim population growth.)

Why does the overpopulation myth persist worldwide, even though it’s typically demonstrably false (like in Burma) or nowhere near the epidemic that its proponents assert (like in Europe and India)? It’s true that the global Muslim population is growing, and fast. But it’s not growing at the same speed across regions. And the trope seems to have the most power not where Muslim populations are actually growing the fastest—like sub-Saharan Africa—but in places where they are culturally distinct minorities.

There’s nothing inherent in Islam to link it to higher fertility—in fact, it’s not a particularly natalist, or pro-birth, religion. Eight of the nine classic schools of Islamic law permit contraception. Many Muslim states, including Pakistan, have supported family planning. (...)

The claim about Muslim overpopulation falls apart in fascinating ways when examined more closely. The fastest fertility drop in modern history happened in the Islamic theocracy of Iran. In 1950, Iranian women had about seven children each; today they have about 1.68, fewer than Americans. What changed? In 1989, the country’s leaders realized that the the high birth rate was straining the young republic. In response, the Supreme Leader issued fatwas encouraging birth control and contraception, and the Health Ministry propagated family planning counseling, rural health centers, and contraceptive distribution across the country. (...)

In the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, Indonesia, fertility rates dropped between the 1960s and the 1990s, from about 5.6 children per woman to 2.3, as the Suharto dictatorship instituted a vigorous, centralized family planning program and made improvements to girls’ education. Those government services were decentralized after democracy came to the archipelago in 1998 and, predictably, fertility rates have been creeping up again. Today, Indonesia’s majority-Christian but less developed eastern provinces have a higher birthrate than the more developed, Muslim-majority western ones—a testament to the correlation between economic development and fertility.

Eu suspeito que a ideia de que os muçulmanos terão um crescimento populacional brutal é também o resultado da reação de algumas pessoas "com desafios a matemática" à poliginia entre entre os muçulmanos - já vi cartoons na internet comparando uma família ocidental com um homem, uma mulher e um filho com uma família islâmica com um homem, quatro mulheres e quatro filhos por cada mulher, com a mensagem implícita que enquanto as famílias ocidentais produzem um filho, as islâmicas produzem 16; também já vi em blogues islamofóbicos, a respeito das estatísticas da taxa de fertilidade dos muculmanos, comentários estilo "seria bom saber se isso é por mulher ou por família" (o que só faz sentido se eles estiverem a pensar em famílias com várias mulheres reprodutoras). Mas, claro, a ideia que a poliginia leva a um elevado crescimento demográfico ("como têm muitas mulheres, têm muitos filhos") é idiota - por uma razão elementar: em princípio por cada homem muçulmano com 4 mulheres há 3 homens muçulmanos sem mulher nenhum, pelo que no agregado isso não tem efeito quase nenhum (não será exatamente assim porque haverá alguns casamentos entre homens muçulmanos e mulheres não-muçulmanas - e também o inverso, contudo suspeito que serão menos os casos - mas suspeito que no conjunto representam pouco).

A ideia de que os homens terem muitas mulheres contribui para o crescimento demográfico parece feita a pensar num mundo imaginário em que haveria uma abundância quase infinita de mulheres e seriam os homens (mais exatamente, o número de filhos por homem) o fator determinante para o crescimento da população.