É cada vez mais díficil aprender a programar?

Learning to program is getting harder, por Allen Downey:

The fundamental problem is that the barrier between using a computer and programming a computer is getting higher.

When I got a Commodore 64 (in 1982, I think) this barrier was non-existent.  When you turned on the computer, it loaded and ran a software development environment (SDE).  In order to do anything, you had to type at least one line of code, even if all it did was another program (...)

Since then, three changes have made it incrementally harder for users to become programmers

1) Computer retailers stopped installing development environments by default.  As a result, anyone learning to program has to start by installing an SDE -- and that's a bigger barrier than you might expect. (...)

2) User interfaces shifted from command-line interfaces (CLIs) to graphical user interfaces (GUIs).  GUIs are generally easier to use, but they hide information from users about what's really happening.  When users really don't need to know, hiding information can be a good thing.  The problem is that GUIs hide a lot of information programmers need to know.

3) Cloud computing has taken information hiding to a whole new level.  People using web applications often have only a vague idea of where their data is stored and what applications they can use to access it.  Many users, especially on mobile devices, don't distinguish between operating systems, applications, web browsers, and web applications. 

Via Slashdot e Marginal Revolution.