Thursday, August 19, 2010

A "ground zero mosque" e as sondagens

Polling on Cordoba House, por Steven L. Taylor:

It is interesting that as one gets closer to the project, opposition lessens. Indeed, if one looks within the Marist poll to the breakdown of opinion by borough we find that not only does opposition lessen, support moves into majority public opinion when we get to Manhattan. If we look at the table below, the one borough of NYC that supports the project is the borough where the building will be built (as well as the borough that directly suffered the attacks of 9/11). According to the table 53% of the registered voters polled in Manhattan favor the project, 31% oppose it and 16% are unsure.


At a minimum, it is curious that the farther away one goes from the locus of the debate that opposition grows. To summarize:

Manhattan: 53% in favor.

NYC: 53% opposed

The US: ~70% opposed.
Polls, Reporting on "Ground Zero Mosque" May Mislead, por Nate Silver:

Another problem with both the Quinnipiac and Ramsussen polls is that it's a bit ambiguous what it means to "support" or "oppose" the project in this context. I imagine there is a spectrum of about five different positions that one might take on Cordoba House:
1) I support the project: its goals seem laudable, and it would be a welcome addition to the neighborhood.

2) I am indifferent about the project itself -- I can see the arguments both for it and against it. But this is a free country, and the developers certainly have a right to express themselves.

3) I'd rather that the project weren't built, especially so near to Ground Zero. But it's certainly not the government's business to stop its construction.

4) I'm opposed to the project and hope that it isn't built. But I'm indifferent about whether or not the City should act to stop it.

5) I'm definitely opposed to the project, and the City should exercise its authority to prevent it from being built.

Arguably, responses 3 through 5 all qualify as "opposition" to the project, whereas only the first one indicates clear support. But one's personal position on the mosque is not necessarily the same as thinking that the City should take affirmative steps to prohibit its construction by eminent domain laws by or other means, a position held by only those in Group 5. This is somewhat analogous to asking: "do you support or oppose flag-burning?". Without additional context, it would be quite natural for someone to say they opposed it, but they might nevertheless consider it to be Constitutionally protected activity. Likewise, while Cordoba House is clearly not popular, none of the polling speaks to whether a proposal like Paladino's would find much support.
[Com "a proposal like Paladino's", Nate Silver está-se a referir a isto]

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