Sunday, October 27, 2019

Houve um "milagre chileno"?

There was no “Chilean Miracle”, por "Pseudoerasmus" (atenção que isto é um texto de 2016):

Almost all of the economic growth in the Pinochet years was simply recovery from recession, i.e., closing the output gaps that he himself created. There was no change in trend output growth, which is sort of what we expect from ‘miracles’ in economic development. (...)

But the actually existing Chile is no closer to convergence with the rich countries than it was in 1930. The best you can say for Chile is it has reversed its relative decline a little more than Argentina and Uruguay. (See first chart above.)

Chile’s GDP per capita is somewhat higher than Argentina’s or Uruguay’s, but all three are middle-income countries at more than $20,000 in current international dollars.

However, Chileans work longer hours than Argentines (....)

Argentina has also higher productivity levels than Chile. (See GDP per worker hour and TFP for Argentina, and for Chile.) 

(...) Uruguay, despite having a lower GDP per capita , has a higher mean income than Chile at every quintile of the income distribution, except the top. I suspect something similar prevails for Argentina. (...)

So it’s not at all clear the somewhat higher per capita income in Chile versus Argentina and Uruguay reflects a real difference in welfare.
Como eu já disse várias vezes, o eu linkar para um artigo não indica necessariamente concordância (nomeadamente, neste caso, eu estar a linkar para o post de Pseudoerasmos não implica que eu esteja a concordar com as críticas que lá ele também faz às políticas de Allende).

Já agora, ver Milagre Chileno?, Milagre Chileno (II), (III) e (IV), uma série de posts que escrevi em 2006 sobre o assunto.

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