Implications of a Disorderly Greek Default and Euro Exit, segundo o Institute of Internation Finance (via Business Insider):
There are some very important and damaging ramifications that would result from adisorderly default on Greek government debt. Most directly, it would impose significantfurther damage on an already beleaguered Greek economy, raising serious social costs.
The most obvious immediate spillover it that it would put a major question mark againstthe quality of a sizeable amount of Greek private sector liabilities.
For the official sector in the rest of the Euro Area, however, the contingent liabilities thatcould result would seem to be:
- Direct losses on Greek debt holdings (€73 billion) that would probably result froma generalized default on Greek debt (owed to both private and public sectorcreditors);
- Sizeable potential losses by the ECB: we estimate that ECB exposure to Greece(€177 billion) is over 200% of the ECB’s capital base; '
- The likely need to provide substantial additional support to both Portugal andIreland (government and well as banks) to convince market participants that thesecountries were indeed fully insulated from Greece (possibly a combined €380billion over a 5 year horizon);
- The likely need to provide substantial support to Spain and Italy to stemcontagion there (possibly another €350 billion of combined support from theEFSF/ESM and IMF);
- The ECB would be directly damaged by a Greek default, but would come underpressure to significantly expand its SMP (currently €219 billion) to supportsovereign debt markets;
- There would be sizeable bank recapitalization costs, which could easily be €160billion. Private investors would be very leery to provide additional equity, thusleaving governments with the choice of either funding the equity themselves, orseeing banks achieve improved ratios through even sharper deleveraging;
- There would be lost tax revenues from weaker Euro Area growth and higherinterest payments from higher debt levels implied in providing additional lending;
- There would be lower tax revenues resulting from lower global growth. Theglobal growth implications of a disorderly default are, ex ante, hard to quantify.Lehman Brothers was far smaller than Greece and its demise was supposedly wellanticipated. It is very hard to be confident about how producers and consumers inthe Euro Area and beyond will respond when such an extreme event as adisorderly sovereign default occurs