Rumsfelds and the knowns unknowns.

Vantagem de um realista cínico: podemos contar pelo menos com a ponderação objectiva das possibilidades em vez da visão "nobel lie" do "vamos ser recebidos com flores" neocon

Donald Rumsfeld's secret memo warned George W. Bush about Iraq

Titled "Iraq: an illustrative list of potential problems to be considered and addressed" (but described on his website as his "parade of horribles"), the memo was sent to Mr Bush as a "checklist" to make sure they were included in deliberations about Saddam Hussein and Iraq's suspected weapons of mass destruction.

Number 13 on the list reads: "The US could fail to find WMD on the ground in Iraq and be unpersuasive to the world." However, the 15th item appeared to contradict the warning: "There could be higher than expected US and coalition deaths from Iraq's use of weapons of mass destruction against coalition forces in Iraq Kuwait and/or Israel."

Item No 17 is somewhat prescient, given what happened after President Bush's "mission accomplished" speech on May 1, 2003, declaring the combat phase of the war to be over.

"The US could fail to manage post-Saddam Hussein Iraq successfully, with the result that it could fracture into two or three pieces, to the detriment of the Middle East and the benefit of Iran," Mr Rumsfeld wrote.

He also warned: "Rather than having the post-Saddam effort require two to four years, it could take eight to ten years, thereby absorbing US leadership, military and financial resources."