Monday, February 28, 2011

O "governo provisório" líbio

Libya opposition launches council (Al-Jazeera):

Opposition protesters in eastern Libya have formed a national council, pledging to help free areas of the country still under Muammar Gaddafi's rule.

Hafiz Ghoga, spokesman for the new National Libyan Council that was launched in the city of Benghazi on Sunday, said the council was not an interim government.

"The main aim of the national council is to have a political face ... for the revolution," Ghoga told a news conference after the gathering to announce the council's formation.

"We will help liberate other Libyan cities, in particular Tripoli through our national army, our armed forces, of which part have announced their support for the people," Ghoga said.

On Saturday, former justice minister Mustafa Mohamed Abdel Jalil - who resigned from Gaddafi's cabinet on Monday in protest at the killing of protesters - told Al Jazeera he had led the formation of a body which would lead the country for three months to prepare for elections.

Both Libya's ambassador to the US and its deputy UN ambassador said they supported the initiative. (...)

Al Jazeera's Hoda Abdel-Hamid, reporting from Benghazi, said there was an understanding that the uprisings in different cities that have fallen into the hands of the opposition need to be concentrated under one umbrella to counter the regime.

"The ex-justice minister is taking the lead in this movement," she said.

"They have five representatives of each city or town and each time a new one falls, they immediately establish contact to have that city or town join this national council.

"There is a feeling here in the east that if they stay separated from the rest of the country, then it will soon look like a secessionist movement rather than an uprising."

Ghoga said the newly formed council was not contacting foreign governments and did not want them to intervene.

His comments came after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington was "reaching out" to opposition groups in the east.and was prepared to offer "any kind of assistance" to Libyans seeking to overthrow the regime.

"We are reaching out to many different Libyans in the east as the revolution moves westward there as well," she said.

In places such as Benghazi that have ejected Gaddafi's loyalists, citizens have set up committees to act as a local authority and run services.
[O título do meu post está errado, já que eles dizem expressamente que o "Conselho" não é um governo provisório, mas era díficil pôr num título algo como "oposição líbia e cidades rebeldes estabelecem organismo de coordenação e representação"]

Intervenção internacional na Líbia?

On International Intervention and the Dire Situation in Libya, por Asli Bali and Ziad Abu-Rish, no site Jadaliyya (via twitter Libyans Revolt):

If al-Qaddafi’s regime falls today or tomorrow, debates about intervention will be moot. But unfolding events present an interesting opportunity to engage with interventionist arguments. The very fact that calls for intervention come at the eleventh hour and rarely emerge in time to make a meaningful impact or stave off the worst of atrocities in situations of crisis is itself worth noticing. Beyond that, we offer some reflections on the merits of different interventionist scenarios in the Libyan context specifically.


The first test of any would-be interventionist is this: do no harm. And there is very little evidence that direct intervention in the Libyan case could meet this test. For instance, calls for a no-fly zone by Libya’s Deputy Ambassador to the U.N. (drawing on the Iraqi precedent of the 1990s) and an air campaign by others (drawing on the Kosovo precedent from 1999) would surely fail this test. Neither option would shield the Libyan civilian population from the regime’s coercive apparatus (which is not principally aerial) and both options may entail serious costs to civilians by freezing or exacerbating the situation on the ground. Beyond raising questions of enforcement (would international forces fire on Libyan aircraft?), a no-fly zone might well block one method of escape for Libyan civilians or close an avenue for defections by members of the air force, such as the four pilots that are known to have flown out and defected in disobedience of direct orders to bomb civilians. Alternatively, air strikes run the risk of serious damage to both the civilian population and infrastructure. In short, any intervention must be crafted to offer real support to the civilian population of Libya, which direct forms of coercive intervention like no-fly zones or air strikes would not. But are there other forms of intervention that would be better suited to the task? Given limited knowledge of Libya’s internal dynamics at present and the heavy-handed interventionist toolkit developed to date by the international community any such option must be approached with caution.

Coercive options should be taken off the table. Absent the political will to commit ground forces to serve as a meaningful buffer between the regime and the population, any coercive intervention will do more damage (particularly to civilians) than good. Further, even if the political will existed for forceful intervention to offer direct protection to Libyan civilians, history suggests that the ultimate outcome of such intervention would still be harmful. Aside from the obvious potential threats to the civilian populations from the presence of foreign troops on their soil, including risks from a ground conflict and risks associated with the possibility of a prolonged presence, there are additional considerations that weigh against such intervention. At a time when the regime appears to be crumbling from within, as a result of the courageous mobilization of its own people, to engage in an eleventh hour intervention runs the very serious risk of depriving the Libyan people of their control over the hard-won transition they have initiated. To rebrand the Libyan uprising with the last minute trappings of international liberation (read: “Made in the West”) would do a serious disservice to the achievements of the protesters. Of course, none of this is to absolve the international community of its obligation to support Libyan civilians. Rather, we seek to identify a principled course of action that speaks to the dire situation, our responsibilities towards it, and the power relations that frame it.

In the immediate context, the most appropriate role for the international community is in providing humanitarian assistance and desisting from any further support to the regime. In addition to condemning the regime’s resort to violence, there are at least five modalities for the provision of such assistance, all of which should be employed immediately, with the support of the Security Council. First, all borders should be opened and appropriate facilities created to allow Libyan civilians to flee regime violence. If various governments are going to create exit routes through charter flights and land crossings for their own citizens, they also need to create a mechanism for Libyans to get out. Second, all available means for providing direct humanitarian assistance on the ground to the Libyan population should be utilized, including aid convoys to eastern Libya through Egypt and to western Libya through Tunisia. Third, al-Qaddafi’s assets and those of remaining elements of the regime should be frozen and kept in safe keeping to be given to whatever post-Qaddafi system emerges. Fourth, governments with ties to Libya should immediately sever all military ties, withholding delivery of materiel and cancelling all outstanding contracts. Finally, an arms embargo should be imposed preventing the sale or delivery of military equipment or personnel (including foreign mercenaries) to the Libyan state security forces. Sanctions that target military materiel, services and the movement of reinforcements from among foreign mercenaries are essential. Sanctions that go beyond these aims would run the risk of causing more harm to civilians than to the regime.

Beyond these measures, several other recent suggestions for intervention – ranging from direct coercion to demands for immediate international criminal accountability – raise a number of troubling implications that should give pause to those acting in solidarity with the Libyan people. (...) For instance, in a post-transition Libya, individuals with ties to the West or experience with energy markets might emerge as favored interlocutors, identified with international approval as “moderate” and “appropriate.” To invite forceful international intervention in the last days of the current regime might empower external interveners to make such choices, potentially at the expense of the preferences of the Libyan people. Particularly in light of how little is known about the current political dynamics among opposition groups within Libya, international intervention may entail a particularly high risk that the narrative framing of events will be captured by external actors in ways that are adverse to local Libyan choices.

Even more troubling, however, are the implications for regime risk calculations associated with the differential international position of the Libyan state as compared to Tunisia and Egypt. As we have seen, despite clear evidence that the regime has lost its grip on power as a result of the scale of the popular mobilization and defections, al-Qaddafi appears to be upping the ante rhetorically and in practice with escalations of violence. The likelihood that he will continue to raise the stakes is a real one that turns on two factors. The first is al-Qaddafi’s continued control of at least a proportion of his security forces, including parts of the military. The second is the absence of alternatives to a desperate bid to retain power through force. There is little that international actors can do to influence the first factor other than make clear that anyone who commits acts of violence against civilians, whether or not under orders, will be investigated and held liable under standards of international accountability. International measures designed to influence those within the chain of command of the military or security forces to switch sides and support the demonstrators are certainly legitimate. In practice, however, internal dynamics are far likelier to impact these immediate calculations than threats of future prosecution. There is, however, a chance to influence the second factor more decisively.

(...) Outside of Sudan, few leaders in the region are likely to have as keen an appreciation of the prospects of imprisonment, prosecution, and sentencing by an international court as al-Qaddafi. In fact, this scenario is quite plausible should al-Qaddafi physically survive the end of his regime, since he would offer the international community an excellent opportunity to symbolically stand with protesters across the region at low cost. Whereas meaningful accountability for deposed former Western allies might prove embarrassing, the prosecution of al-Qaddafi would vindicate calls for international justice without similar risks. Unlike the final indignity of a forced but comfortable resignation in Egypt and Tunisia, al-Qaddafi might well appreciate that his final days will more closely resemble those of the deposed Iraqi dictator made to stand trial. The prospect of retirement in a prison cell in the Hague may factor into al-Qaddafi’s incentives to make good on his threats to fight to the last of his capacities, visiting untold atrocities on Libyan civilians in the process. Paradoxically, then, providing al-Qaddafi with an immediate exit strategy to a safe haven might be the right choice from a humanitarian perspective. Shifting the regime’s incentives by offering an option that is neither death nor prosecution may well be the most humanitarian of presently available options for international intervention. Working with Venezuela, neighboring countries or others that would be willing to provide safe passage to Qaddafi would be far preferable than the apocalyptic endgame that the regime might otherwise pursue for lack of alternatives. The missed opportunity to pursue immediate prosecution pales in comparison to the death and destruction that might be avoided by shifting the regime’s risk calculation in this way. Moreover, little is lost by pursuing an immediate exit strategy today while leaving open the possibility of international criminal accountability down the line. In truth, international prosecutions take significant time and resources and do not represent an immediate alternative regardless. Threatening al-Qaddafi with war crimes prosecutions today may create perverse incentives with little strategic benefit. Securing him an exit option now may have the strategic benefit of sparing the Libyan people the violent death throes of their doomed regime.

We thus return to our original do-no-harm principle. We neither advocate abandoning the Libyan people to the violence of the regime nor protecting al-Qaddafi from accountability. But as calls for international intervention grow, we must worry about the risk of counter-productive results for Libyans on the ground of some of the options being considered. A combined strategy of humanitarian assistance, severing existing military ties with the regime, and generating exit options for al-Qaddafi and his family may well be the best course for accomplishing the goal of supporting Libya’s civilian population.

Pacheco Pereira sobre as revoluções árabes

Este artigo de Pacheco Pereira já foi analisado e criticado noutros sítios. Mas há uma parte que me chamou especificamente a atenção:

É por isso que uma das coisas que não encaixavam na narrativa sobre a revolta árabe era ver a multidão na Praça Tahrir a rezar. Não que a fé e a oração públicas sejam por si só incompatíveis com a laicidade de um Estado, mas porque não havia excepções na muralha de corpos prostrados. Não havia cristãos na multidão, não havia um ateu, um agnóstico, alguém que não fosse religioso, e permanecesse de pé ou à margem da oração?
Pacheco Pereira terá visto as mesmas reportagens que eu? É que uma cena típica que era apresentada era, exactamente, os manifestantes muçulmanos a rezar e os manifestantes cristãos a fazer um cordão humano à sua volta.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Mandar os marines?

É praticamente impossível saber o que o "líbio médio" pensa neste momento; mas entre os oposicionistas líbios activos no Twitter não parece haver grande entusiasmo pela ideia de mandar os marines ou outras forças dos EUA/ONU/NATO para o país (embora alguns defendam uma zona de exclusão aérea).

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

A descolonização do "mandato britânico da Palestina" - o grande erro?

Um comentador israelita sobre as revoluções árabes - "When we try to think how and why the United States and the West lost Egypt, Tunis, Yemen and perhaps other countries in the Middle East, people forget that. The original sin began right after WWII, when a wonderful form of government that protected security and peace in the Middle East (and in other parts of the Third Word) departed from this world following pressure from the United States and Soviet Union... More than sixty years have passed since the Arab states and the countries of Africa were liberated from the 'colonial yoke,' but there still isn't an Arab university, an African scientist or a Middle Eastern consumer product that has made a mark on our world." (via al-Jazeera)

Realmente, após a II Guerra Mundial, a pressão conjugada dos EUA e da URSS (incluindo os seus satélites) na ONU levou o Reino Unido a abandonar o território que administrava na chamada Palestina, o que de facto afectou bastante a segurança e a paz no Médio Oriente.

Diga-se que o pais resultante desse processo até pode ter tido uns casos pontuais de cientistas, universidades ou produtos com algum sucesso, mas nada que se compare com os patamares que, no Ocidente, têm sido regularmente atingidos por individuos com as mesmas raízes étnico-religiosas.

A Soviet Foreign Policy: A Revisionist Perspective by Murray N. Rothbard

Um texto marco de Murray N. Rothbard (1973, data do seu manifesto For a New Liberty, the Libertarian Manifesto) que como muitos outros no domínio da política externa o pôs no campo dos malditos (deixou de escrever na National Review, acusado de isto e aquilo).

A Soviet Foreign Policy: A Revisionist Perspective by Murray N. Rothbard

Dr Henry Kissinger is the best

Apareceu no twitter um tal de Dr Henry Kissinger [@Henry_Kissinger view full profile → New York, 56th United States Secretary of State and Chairman, Kissinger Associates] que é fabuloso, ver aqui:!/Henry_Kissinger

A título de exemplo:

Dr Henry Kissinger
I understand Gaddafi will refute malicious rumors he has fled Libya on a special broadcast on Venezuelan State Television.
Dr Henry Kissinger
Those attacking my friend,Silvio Berlusconi,as a sleazy, corrupt, sexist, meglomaniac drunk are out of line. He does not drink @
Dr Henry Kissinger
Latest: State Dept.'s new Libya statement: "Gaddafi should cease massacring his people as soon as is practicable."
Dr Henry Kissinger
So when I warned of Domino Effect for communism, I was "crazy". When you warn of it for "democracy" you're mother-fucking-teresa?

Monday, February 21, 2011

Vantagens da distracção?

Bother Me, I'm Thinking, no Wall Street Journal (via Marginal Revolution):

In fact, the ability to pay attention is considered such an essential life skill that the lack of it has become a widespread medical problem. Nearly 10% of American children are now diagnosed with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

In recent years, however, scientists have begun to outline the surprising benefits of not paying attention. Sometimes, too much focus can backfire; all that caffeine gets in the way. For instance, researchers have found a surprising link between daydreaming and creativity—people who daydream more are also better at generating new ideas. Other studies have found that employees are more productive when they're allowed to engage in "Internet leisure browsing" and that people unable to concentrate due to severe brain damage actually score above average on various problem-solving tasks.

A new study led by researchers at the University of Memphis and the University of Michigan extends this theme. The scientists measured the success of 60 undergraduates in various fields, from the visual arts to science. They asked the students if they'd ever won a prize at a juried art show or been honored at a science fair. In every domain, students who had been diagnosed with attention-deficit disorder achieved more: Their inability to focus turned out to be a creative advantage.
[Um comentário lateral - não sei se o facto da condição designada "Perturbação do Déficit de Atenção/Hiperactividade" ser, na linguagem comum, simplesmente chamada "hiperactividade" - apesar de grande parte das pessoas com PDAH não serem hiperactivas, algumas muito pelo contrário - não levará a grandes equivocos sobre a sua natureza]

A War Built on Four Lies

Em: Why Germany Must End its Deployment in Afghanistan, A Commentary by Jürgen Todenhöfer

[Jürgen Todenhöfer, 70, served as a representative in the Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament, as a member of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) from 1972 to 1990. He has also served as a judge and a member of the executive board of the German media company Hubert Burda Media. Todenhöfer has made regular visits to Afghanistan since 1980 and wrote about them in his 2010 book "Teile Dein Glück" ("Share Your Good Fortune").]


The Four Lies about the War in Afghanistan

Since no one really wants to repeat such platitudes, they prefer to tell fairy tales like the ones they used with Iraq. Their hands hold swords, while their mouths tell lies. When it comes to the war in Afghanistan, there are four lies:

The first lie says we're there to fight international terrorism. Even David Petraeus, supreme commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, conceded in May 2009 that al-Qaida is no longer operating in Afghanistan. The organization became decentralized a long time ago, with nerve centers spread around the globe. And al-Qaida's leaders don't transmit instructions from Afghanistan anymore because all electronic data traffic in the region is monitored by American drones and satellites.

In Afghanistan, what we're really fighting is not international terrorists, but a national resistance movement -- and, in doing so, we're creating exactly the thing we claim to be combating. For every civilian we kill, 10 more young people across the globe rise up, determined to strike back with terror. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the former commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, called this "insurgent math" in the interview that would ultimately cost him his job. Like a boomerang, our own violence comes back to haunt us in the guise of global terrorism.

The second lie is that we're there to defend our civilization's values. I recently held a position teaching constitutional law. I tried to explain to my students that our constitution protects every individual's dignity. No one can be deprived of his or her freedom without a trial. But where is human dignity being respected in Afghanistan? Every day, two to three Afghan civilians die at the hands of Western troops. By night, nameless American death squads move in to liquidate resistance leaders -- and often civilians as well -- violating the most basic rules of international law. Young Afghans have sat in the Bagram torture prison for years with no hope of being granted a trial and in conditions worse than at Guantanamo.

Our "defenders of civilization" never considered this worthy of a parliamentary debate. Indeed, since the dawn of colonialism, our involvement in the Muslim world has never been about defending our civilization's values; it's about defending our interests -- and Iraq and Afghanistan are merely the latest episodes in a long history. What's more, in most cases we've even been more brutal than our Muslim opponents. Granted, over the past 19 years, al-Qaida has brutally murdered some 3,500 Western civilians in the United States and Western Europe. But former US President George W. Bush has hundreds of thousands of civilian lives on his conscience in Iraq alone -- and all of this is in the name of our civilization.

The third lie is that we prioritize civilian reconstruction over military activities.
Although the US spent $100 billion (€74 billion) on the war in 2010, only $5 billion of that was for development aid -- and 40 percent of this "aid" happened to flow back to the US as profit and fees. The rest of the money had to wind its way through the dark channels of international subcontractors before a trickle of 20-30 percent finally reached development projects.

Germany likewise puts into reconstruction only a fraction of what it spends on its military. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Afghanistan is currently the poorest country in Asia, and UNICEF estimates that 20 percent of all children there die before reaching the age of five. Even US Ambassador Karl Eikenberry admits that 77 percent of Afghans don't have access to clean drinking water and 45 percent go hungry. Under these circumstances, can we really call this "prioritizing civilian reconstruction"?

The fourth lie is that we're in the Hindu Kush to prevent the return of the Taliban for good. That almost sounds like a goal we can rally behind. After all, who really wants to see a return of those Stone Age warriors who trample women's rights under their feet? Nevertheless, the truth is actually much more complex. The Taliban already controls half of Afghanistan, and the danger that it will capture the rest won't be any smaller four years from now. Indeed, the Afghan Taliban grows stronger every day and -- unlike its imitators in Pakistan -- it seems to have learned from past mistakes. The New York Times has reported that, in some regions controlled by the resistance, girls are once again being barred from attending school -- with the Taliban's approval. The "Layeha," or "book of rules," laid down by Taliban spiritual leader Mullah Omar suggests that things will soon change in many respects.

Even if things were different, the Taliban's unacceptable worldview is still not a good enough reason to wage war. If that were the case we would also have to invade Somalia, Yemen and North Korea and a number of other authoritarian states, some of which we even count among our allies. The world would become one massive, bloody battlefield.


Os Democratas, os Republicanos e o Tea Party

David Friedman, a 26/11/2010:

Watching the election returns this week, it occurred to me that they were producing a potentially interesting situation—a three party House of Representatives. On paper, the Republicans have a majority. But that majority depends on the support of a substantial number of representatives who got nominated despite opposition from the Republican establishment, mostly with Tea Party support. They, like everybody else who reads the poll results, are aware that, unpopular as the Democratic party is with voters at the moment, the Republican party is only a little less unpopular. (...)

Considered as a three party game, and ignoring divisions with the Democratic party, the logic is simple. Obama and the Democrats cannot pass legislation. Neither can the Republicans. Neither can the (hypothetical) Tea Party caucus. Neither can the Republicans allied with the Tea Party. But an alliance of Obama with either of the other two provides majorities in both houses; that plus the President's signature is, short of a successful filibuster, sufficient. And it is not entirely clear that the Republicans, absent the support of Tea Party senators, could mount a filibuster.

It is tempting, but boring, to assume that since the Tea Party is in some sense on the opposite side from the Democrats, no alliances are possible. Reason to reject that assumption is provided by recent British political history. The Liberal Democrats, by most views, were positioned to the left of a Labor party that had become increasingly centrist in the years since Maggie Thatcher's successful Tory rule. But when an election produced a majority for neither of the major parties, it was the Conservatives, not Labor, that they ended up in coalition with. So far, that coalition seems to working.

I admit, however, that I have had a hard time thinking up plausible issues on which the Tea Party and the Democrats might align against the Republicans. It would be easier if the Tea party were more consistently libertarian—one could imagine, for instance, an alliance to pass a federal medical marijuana law, supposing that it occurs to Obama that scaling back the War on Drugs is at this point a more popular policy than strengthening it. 
David Friedman, a 17/02/2011:
In a post I made after the most recent election, I suggested that the rise of the Tea Party had created a de facto three party game in Washington: A coalition of Obama with either the traditional Republicans or the Tea Party was sufficient to pass legislation. At first glance, the latter coalition seemed unlikely, but not impossible, although I couldn't think of any specific issues on which it could come together.

We now have one:
President Obama scored a victory today in the House when Tea Party Republicans helped scrap funding for a jet engine the White House and Defense Secretary Robert Gates have been trying to kill for years. (USA Today, Feb 16, 2011)
Eu acrescentaria que a votação sobre o Patriot Act (que, confesso, não percebi se foi prolongado ou não) também andou perto de uma confluência entre os Democratas (ou parte deles) e o Tea Party.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Kaddafy já caiu?

Correm rumores que Kaddafy fugiu para a América do Sul (ultimas rumores - Venezuela) e um dos seus filhos matou outro.

Entretanto os embaixadores líbios na China e na Liga Árabe demitiram-se e várias tribos poderosas (que parece que têm armas) juntaram-se à revolta.

Pelo menos 200 mortos na Líbia

Só na cidade de Bengazi já terão sido mortas 200 pessoas, segundo vários meios de comunicação.

A Líbia tem para aí 6 milhões e meio de habitantes; se fizéssemos uma analogia com a China (que em 1989 deveria ter uns mil milhões de habitantes), isso seria o equivalente a 30.000 mortos - ou seja, dez massacres de Tienanmen.

Re: Um “islamofóbico” confessa-se, a crónica de Alberto Gonçalves no DN.

Rui Carmo n'Oinsurgente recomenda: Um “islamofóbico” confessa-se, a crónica de Alberto Gonçalves no DN.

Algumas notas:

1. "Talvez porque uma considerável quantidade de imigrantes muçulmanos no Ocidente rejeite qualquer esboço de integração"

Tenho a certeza que se procurar textos com críticas anti-semitas em séculos anteriores ao séc.20 (estou a recordar-me de um texto de Eça de Queiroz) se encontra exactamente esta acusação, de resto, verdadeira. A ortodoxia no judaísmo e o poder teocrático em cada judiaria era conhecida (leis próprias, incluindo penais, obediência ao poder teocrático local, etc.).

2. Associação da violação de Lara Logan com o islamismo... isto faz sentido em que patamar, o Islão é libertino?

(Um dado: Lara Logan tem sido a mais entusiasta das reporters pro-war no Iraque e Afeganistão)

3. "Talvez porque, no meu tempo de vida, nenhuma outra religião inspirou tantas chacinas (já repararam que há pouquíssimos atentados reivindicados por católicos, baptistas, judeus, budistas ou hindus?)."

Esta nem de propósito: ver o post anterior com referência a este artigo do NYT, analisando os ataques suicidas.

"The leading instigator of suicide attacks is the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, a Marxist-Leninist group whose members are from Hindu families but who are adamantly opposed to religion. This group committed 76 of the 315 incidents, more than Hamas (54) or Islamic Jihad (27). Even among Muslims, secular groups like the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Al Aksa Martyr Brigades account for more than a third of suicide attacks.

4. "Talvez porque alguns líderes espirituais do islão foram convictos aliados de Hitler na época do primeiro Holocausto e alguns dos seus sucessores ganham a vida a exigir o segundo. "

Isto é o quê: uma suspeita que o Islão é nazi? E a associação de Churchill e Rosevelt com Estaline prova o quê? Que eram comunistas-mass-murders (Estaline em tempo de paz nos anos 30 bem antes dos nazis em tempo de guerra nos anos 40)? No início da guerra, os povos que viviam na tutela de Estaline (como os Ucranianos, ou de outros, como a Croácia) viram (pelo menos parte das elites população) a invasão de Hitler da URSS com natural interesseirismo (como quando Napoleão o fez, o interesse nacional é maior que as ideologias, todas as nações na sua história de impor o seu Estado, escolheram aliados pela utilidade, não pela afecção ideológica, e passar por cima disto é típico do mind set inibidor da análise [intencional] que é o neoconservadorismo).

Leituras antiwar

1. Um Congressista Democrata e outro Republicano na linha Ron Paul (via dailypaul)

"Simply put, we believe the human and financial costs of the war are unacceptable and unsustainable. It is bankrupting us. The United States should devise an exit plan to extricate ourselves from Afghanistan, not a plan to stay there four more years and "then we'll see." This doesn't mean that we abandon the Afghan people - rather, we should abandon this war strategy. It is a failure that has not brought stability to Afghanistan and has not enhanced our own security. As the retired career Army officer Andrew J. Bacevich has written, to die for a mystique is the wrong policy."

2. Uma análise do terrorismo suicida, no NYT (via email Filipe Abrantes)

Blowing Up an Assumption

"Three general patterns in the data support these conclusions. First, nearly all suicide terrorist attacks - 301 of the 315 in the period I studied - took place as part of organized political or military campaigns. Second, democracies are uniquely vulnerable to suicide terrorists; America, France, India, Israel, Russia, Sri Lanka and Turkey have been the targets of almost every suicide attack of the past two decades. Third, suicide terrorist campaigns are directed toward a strategic objective: from Lebanon to Israel to Sri Lanka to Kashmir to Chechnya, the sponsors of every campaign - 18 organizations in all - are seeking to establish or maintain political self-determination.

Before Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982, there was no Hezbollah suicide terrorist campaign against Israel; indeed, Hezbollah came into existence only after this event. Before the Sri Lankan military began moving into the Tamil homelands of the island in 1987, the Tamil Tigers did not use suicide attacks. Before the huge increase in Jewish settlers on the West Bank in the 1980's, Palestinian groups did not use suicide terrorism".

Feridos vítimas da repressão na Líbia

[não é possível confirmar se o vídeo é autêntico]

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Noticias da Libia, (mais ou menos) em directo

  • E, para quem saiba árabe, a Rádio Benghazi (tomada ontem pelos manifestantes)

Friday, February 18, 2011

Munícipio de Bagdad exige indemnização aos EUA

Reuters - Iraq's capital wants the United States to apologize and pay $1 billion for the damage done to the city not by bombs but by blast walls and Humvees since the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Nota- não faço ideia se esse "billion" são 10^9 ou 10^12 dólares (por uma lado a Reuters é inglesa; por outro estamos a falar de dólares norte-americanos).


Podemos estar a ficar sem países para comprar a nossa dívida.

Notícias da Líbia

Reuters - Anti-government protesters have seized control of the eastern Libyan city of al Bayda after they were joined by some local police, two Libyan exile groups said on Friday.

Al-Jazeera -

Divisões no aparelho repressivo iraniano?

Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire (Telegraph):

Senior officers in Iran's Revolutionary Guards have written a letter to their commanding officer demanding assurances that they will not be required to open fire on anti-government demonstrators.
[Via Reason Hit and Run]

Anarquia no Egipto

In Egypt, as Everywhere, Anarchy is Order, por Kevin Carson, no Center for a Stateless Society:

In press commentary on the recent events in Egypt, there were frequent expressions of concern that Egypt might be falling into “anarchy.”  “Anarchy,” in conventional journalistic usage, means chaos, disorder, and bloodshed — a Hobbesian war of all against all — that occurs when the stabilizing hand of government is removed.  “Anarchy” is the agenda of mobs of kids in black circle-A t-shirts, smashing windows and setting stuff on fire.

But “anarchy,” as the term is understood by anarchists, is a form of society in which the state is replaced by the management of all human affairs through voluntary associations. (...)

And we saw a great deal of anarchy in Egypt in recent days, in that sense.  The people of Egypt have made a great start towards extending the spheres of free action, contracting new kinds of relationships between human beings, and creating the institutional basis of a real community.
Despite the poice state’s attempts to promote religious dissension and divide the opposition, Coptic Christians have stood watch over Muslims during their daily times of prayer.  Muslims, likewise, guarded the perimeter of Liberation Square during a Coptic mass.

The resistance organized patrols to safeguard shops and museums from looting, and to watch over neighborhoods from which the security forces had been withdrawn.  Meanwhile, as it turned out, most of the actions of violence and looting were false flag operations, carried out by security forces posing as protestors. So the functionaries of the state were the actual sources of violence and disorder; law and order emerged from anarchy — that is, from voluntary association.

The interim leader, Vice President Omar Suleiman — the object of so much hope on the part of neoconservative partisans of “stability” and “order” — is a torturer and a collaborator with the CIA’s “extraordinary rendition” program.  Never forget:  For every dubious example of an alleged “bomb-throwing anarchist,” like those at Haymarket, there are a million bombs thrown by governments.    For every innocent person harmed by an alleged anarchist in a rioting mob, there are a thousand people tortured or murdered in some police dungeon, or ten thousand slaughtered by death squads in the countryside.  For every store window broken by demonstrators, there are untold thousands of peasants robbed of their land in evictions and enclosures by feudal elites.