Tuesday, March 15, 2016

De Sanders para Trump?

The Bernie Sanders voters who would choose Trump over Clinton (The Guardian):

The latest startling phenomenon is the voter who is feeling the Bern, but also has eyes for the Donald.

This week the Guardian sought out Sanders fans who are contemplating switching their allegiance to Trump if Hillary Clinton secures the Democratic nomination.

Almost 700 people replied to the call-out, and some 500 of them said they were thinking the unthinkable: a Sanders-Trump switch.

They explained their unconventional position by expressing a variety of passionately held views on their shared commitment for protecting workers and against new wars, on their zeal for an alternative to the establishment, and on their desire to support anyone but Hillary Clinton. (...)

The demographics

A look at the demography of Trump and Sanders supporters also provides some insights. If you were to get Sanders’ supporters in a room with Trump’s supporters, the two groups would be pretty hard to tell apart.

Repeated polling (including exit polls of individuals who have actually voted in primary elections so far) shows that Sanders’ supporters are overwhelmingly white, and that black voters are unlikely to vote for Sanders.

Both of those facts are also applicable to Donald Trump. (...)

Income is another shared characteristic. Exit polls from New Hampshire where Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton showed that the biggest fissure between voters was income. Among voters with a family income of less than $30,000, Sanders defeated Hillary by 48 percentage points but when the income was above $200,000, Sanders lost by seven percentage points. The Republican primary exit polls in New Hampshire revealed the same trend for Trump; his support was seven percentage points higher among low-income families than those earning $200,000 or more. (...)

But the demographics of Trump and Sanders supporters also differ in several significant ways. Respondents in the CNN/ORC poll were more likely to have a favorable opinion of Trump if they were older (44% of those age 65 and over supported the candidate compared to 25% of those age 18-34) but younger respondents were more likely to support Sanders (51% of those age 65 and over compared to 69% of those age 18-34). While Sanders supporters were likely to say that they lived in urban areas, Trump’s supporters were more likely to say that they lived in rural parts of the country.

A respeito da parte dos eleitores de Trump viverem nas zonas rurais e os de Sanders nas urbanas, não sei se será tão assim - afinal, os melhores resultados de Sanders (como se podem ver naqueles mapas de votação por condados) parecem ser, se não nas zonas rurais, pelo menos nas pequenas cidades; uma diferença mais relevante seria que Sanders tem melhores resultados fora do Sul e Trump no Sul (eu até já me ocorreu que Sanders parece ter os seus melhores resultados nos meios onde o Stephen King muitas vezes ambienta as suas histórias - a classe operária das pequenas localidades não-sulistas, sobretudo da Nova Inglaterra).

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