Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Ainda o colégio eleitoral norte-americano

Some Additional Thoughts on the Faithless, por Steven Taylor (Outside the Beltway):

Prior to 2000, I thought that an electoral college/popular vote inversion would result in voters being shocked about an institution they paid little attention to and that would lead to serious calls to change it. But, of course, that proved to be incorrect. The bottom line is that a) we have an unhealthy reverence for anything that we can attribute to the Founding Fathers, b) those same Fathers made changing the system almost impossible, and c) the winners of any system have no incentive to change that system. (...)

As much as I think that the EC should be replaced with a popular vote system, I cannot see a pathway that leads to its demise save a situation in which the Republicans also fear winning the popular vote and losing the EC as well.  The thing is:  the electoral advantage in terms of actual voters belongs to Democrats:  consider that from 1992 to the present (almost a quarter century), the Republicans have only won the most popular votes once, and that was in 2004.  They lost in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, and in 2016.  And yet, in that same time-span, they have won the presidency twice.  Why?  Because of the electoral college.  They do not have any incentive to get rid of it.

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