Thursday, March 12, 2020

O Covid-19 talvez seja sazonal


Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19:

A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees Celsius and 47-79% humidity). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. We have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
Ver como a infeção evolui em Portimão (onde estamos com paraticamente um tempo de Primavera) nos próximos dias poderá sar uma pista.

Ver também COVID-19 And Its Weather Dependency, por Razib Khan.

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