A personalidade dos eleitores dos partidos britânicos

Personality will affect the British election results, but not the way you think it will…, por Toke S Aidt e Christopher Rauh (Monkey Cage - Washington Post):

Are there fundamental differences in people that influence their preferences for certain parties? Or are party preferences simply determined by income and education and by life-cycle events, such as having children, losing a job or going into retirement?

It appears that, in England at least, part of the answer is “personality.” The so-called Big Five personality traits help predict, on the one hand, the partisan preferences of core voters, and, on the other hand, whether an individual gets attached to a party in the first place. Personality of the voters really matters.
Psychologists emphasize five core personality traits – the Big Five Traits – as powerful tools for encapsulating an individual’s personality. The traits are:

• Extraversion: Having an energetic approach toward the social and material world.
• Agreeableness: Having a pro-social and communal attitude toward others rather than being antagonistic.
• Conscientiousness: Having socially proscribed impulse control that facilitates task- and goal-directed behavior.
• Neuroticism: Having negative emotionality rather than being even-tempered.
• Openness to experience: The breath, depth, originality and complexity of an individual’s mental and experiential life. (...)

In our new working paper, (...) we relate measures of the Big Five (along with average income, income volatility, measures of cognitive skills in math and verbal communication and other characteristics that do not vary over time) to these intrinsic party preferences. (...)

 e.

The effect of the Big Five personality traits on partisanship in England (Data: British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study; Figure: Toke Aidt and Christopher Rauh/The Monkey Cage)

The results are striking: Stark and systematic differences between the personality traits of the core supporters of the three parties emerge.

The Conservative core supporters are antagonistic toward others (low agreeableness); they are energetic and enthusiastic (high extraversion); and they are goal-orientated (high conscientiousness) and even-tempered (low neuroticism). In contrast, the core supporters of the Labour Party have a pro-social and communal attitude (high agreeableness); they are open to new experiences and ideas (high openness); but they are more anxious (high neuroticism) and less prone to goal-directed behavior (low conscientiousness).

The core supporter of the Liberal Democrats has similar traits to the typical core Labour supporter, with two exceptions. First, they do not show any particular tendency toward pro-social and communal attitudes (insignificant agreeableness). Second, they are more reserved and introverted than the more extraverted supporters of either the Conservatives or Labour (low extraversion).

Outra maneira de ver a questão seria concluir que o traço principal dos votantes conservadores será a responsabilidade e sentido de dever, dos trabalhistas a preocupação e o bom relacionamento com os outros, e dos liberais democratas os interesses artísticos e/ou intelectuais (já nos eleitores sem partido, o traço dominante parece mesmo ser a ausência de interesses artísticos e intelectuais).

Já agora, podemos comparar este estudo com este feito há uns anos nos EUA:

• segundo o estudo norte-americano, extroversão estaria associada a ser de direita na economia; já no estudo britânico tanto os eleitores do Partido Conservador (de direita na economia) como do Trabalhista (de esquerda na economia) tendem a ser extrovertidos (ou seja, neste ponto os dois estudos apontam em sentidos diferentes)

• no estudo norte-americano, "agreeableness" estaria ligada a ser de esquerda na economia; os eleitores trabalhistas têm alta "agreebleness" e os conservadores baixa - aí vão no mesmo sentido

• "consciousness" estaria ligada a ser de direita na economia e nos costumes; quem têm mais "consciousness" são os eleitores conservadores (liberal na economia e o menos socialmente progressista dos 3 grandes partidos) - de novo, no mesmo sentido

• estabilidade emocional estaria ligada a ser de direita na economia; os eleitores conservadores são os menos "neuróticos" - confere

• "abertura" estaria ligada a ser de esquerda na economia e nos costumes; os eleitores com maior "abertura" são os do Partido Liberal Democrata (centrista na economia, de esquerda nos costumes) e depois os do Trabalhista (de esquerda na economia e nos costumes) - bate mais ou menos certo

Uma confissão - embora desses três partidos o que eu me sinto mais próximo seja dos Trabalhistas, o meu perfil psicológico é muito mais típico do dos eleitores liberais democratas (se há coisa que eu não sou é "agreable").