Friday, May 22, 2015

Possíveis defaults gregos

Investors eye consequences of a Greek default, por Ferdinando Giugliano (Financial Times):

While a default need not necessarily lead to a Grexit economists warn that it would substantially increase the risks of a departure.

“Default but no Grexit cannot be a stable equilibrium,” Mr Cluse said.

The short-term consequences of a default may depend on who exactly the Greek government fails to pay, as well as on the reaction by creditors — in particular depositors and the ECB. A default by Athens on domestic payment obligations, in the form of IOUs to pensioners and civil servants, would probably be the least risky. (...)

A default on IMF loans would look politically ugly, as Greece would indirectly be refusing to repay some of the poorest countries in the world who contribute to the institution’s coffers. However, it is generally seen as less risky than a default to the ECB. (...)

A default to the ECB is generally seen as the most treacherous option. The Greek banking system relies on emergency funding from the central bank and any decision to close the liquidity taps would result in lenders being unable to meet their obligations. (...)

Since Greek banks hold sizeable amounts of government bonds — which are routinely pledged to the ECB as collateral — defaulting on them would make it hard for policy makers in Frankfurt to conclude that Greek lenders could stand on their own feet.

There could, in theory, be other options. These include a bail-in of bondholders and depositors to strengthen the capital buffer of Greek banks; or a eurozone-wide guarantee on the Greek banking system. However, these would be either difficult to enact domestically or rely on the goodwill of international partners, who stand to shoulder the brunt of a default.

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