Monday, August 20, 2012

Cenário para uma guerra civil nos EUA

Civil War Scenarios, por Arnold Klin:

I am pondering civil war scenarios. Here is one:

1. There is a close election in November, and the losing side has a credible case that the winning side cheated in some way. Some voters on their side were turned away from the polls because of technicalities, or some votes on the other side were counted that should not have been. Whatever.

2. The losers launch a campaign not to accept the results of the election. They organize a massive rally in Washington to try to block entrances at government agencies and Congress.

3. Similar protest movements break out at state capitals.

4. The winners get angry at the protesters. They launch counter-protests.

5. Confrontations take place, and people get hurt. Powerful resentments build.

6. Significant segments on both sides arm themselves in order to retaliate for the perceived wrongs of the other side. Fighting escalates.

Yes, it is far-fetched. But I would argue that it is even more far-fetched, even if the election result is not in dispute, that the losing side will politely accept it and adopt a constructive, compromising stance.

This year's pre-election hatefest is already out of control, in my opinion. It will not end well.
E um comentário de um dos seus leitores:
The main problem with the whole scenario is that the electorate -- the voting populace -- is the *least* partisan and polarized of any on record.

Polls show that more voters today are independent -- not committed to either party -- than at any time since modern polling started and the question was first asked. The voting public is less ideological and more moderate (and, as independents typically are, more apathetic) than ever.

That's not a populace that starts a civil war.

The idea that politics today is more polarized than ever is a total myth. Frankly it relies on huge ignorance of history.

(In my own memory: student protestors shot dead by the national guard ... mobs outside the White House, "hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?" ... domestic-grown terrorists blowing up buildings ... regular summer race riots in the big cities ...)

The voters are less polarized than ever. It is the *partisans* who are polarized, and the *pundits* -- out of self-interest. A moderate electorate doesn't help the partisans conquer their enemies or the pundits get famous and rich -- so *they* are trying to whip up the masses.

But while the partisans at MSNBC and Fox spew, their combined total audiences are tiny and dwarfed by the masses watching American Idol.
Já agora, o meu cenário para uma crise institucional nos EUA:

1 - Numa eleição presidencial, os Democratas têm mais votos mas os Republicanos ganham no Colégio Eleitoral

2 - Nos estados "azuis", surge uma onda de indignação contra o Colégio Eleitoral ("foi em 2000, foi agora... isto é uma farsa!")

3 - Face à quase impossibilidade de mudar a Constituição e  ainda por cima estando constantemente a ouvir dos defensores do Colégio Eleitoral o argumento "os EUA são uma federação de 50 estados; o Colégio Eleitoral existe como uma defesa dos estados contra uma tirania democrática federal", surgem/crescem tendências separatistas nalguns estados "azuis", especialmente na Nova Inglaterra ("É uma questão de defender o poder dos estados? Então o nosso estado - onde 70% vota Democrata - não tem nada que ser governado por um presidente Republicano")

4 - Nalgum daqueles estados da Nova Inglaterra (o Vermont?), é realizado um referendo por iniciativa popular sobre a independência; ganha o "sim"

5 - O governo local tenta ignorar o referendo; os separatistas organizam protestos e em vários town meetings são aprovadas moções a favor da proclamação da independência, ou mesmo proclamando a localidade em questão como independente dos EUA

6 - ????

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