Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Divida e juros da dívida

 The Most Basic Assumption About Sovereign Debt Turns Out To Be 100% Wrong (Business Insider):

One of the most cherished ideas in the analysis of sovereign debt is that debt-to-GDP is a useful measure of a country's credit stress.

For example, Germany hopes the Eurozone can avoid another sovereign debt crisis like the one its currently in if country's are forced to keep sovereign debt at around 60% of GDP.

Conversely, economists like Reinhart and Rogoff have argued that countries start to get into trouble when debt tops 90% debt-to-GDP.

Other economists have argued that when debt hits 80% of GDP, a country's growth tends to get suppressed.
So you get the point, a lot of people think debt-to-GDP is a big deal.

So you'd think, then, that with investors more attuned to sovereign debt issues than ever, that countries with a higher debt to GDP ratio would pay more to borrow.

Well, that turns out to be wrong.

Using data from Bloomberg, we looked at basically all of the big emerging and developed markets* with a big bond market, and good data on debt to GDP and decided to check to see if there was any connection at all between debt to GDP and the yield on their 10-year bonds.

The answer, quite clearly, is no.

In fact, using an exponential regression, we detect a slight shift down and to the right, meaning that the more debt a country has relative to its GDP, the cheaper it is to borrow.

This chart even includes the ultra-outlier Greece, which A) is highly unusual and B) is super-tiny, and yet is given the same weighting as Japan in our system.

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